SUMMARY: An official from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the number of confirmed cases of the swine flu is likely just "the tip of the iceberg." While the new strain has been confirmed in only 5,123 cases and six deaths in the United States, Dr. Anne Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing that there are likely thousands more infections. "We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," she said. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."

STORY LINK: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520611,00.html?test=latestnews

ANALYSIS: CDC risk communications is run by marketing/PR types. They hyped it at first to get the public’s attention, and then found they were looking foolish by cutting back estimates to only their own numbers of confirmed cases. They got confused with a fast-spreading disease and whether it was dangerous or not (the Mexico deaths scared them).

They should have realized that this flu spreads fast, as regular seasonal flu does. Only a few cases were diagnosed and fewer are followed up with confirming tests that only CDC could do (probably less than 1-0.1 percent of total cases).

My original comment on this outbreak was exactly what happened. This is not rocket science. What is needed is just plenty of experience with flu outbreaks and common sense. When writing plans, one has to have contingencies for all outcomes, not just the worse-case scenarios. CDC wanted to make it simple, so it suggested worse-case conditions like closing schools.

The last point: Flu cannot be stopped, only slowed to allow for medical facilities and management to put their plans in place.

--Dr. Steve Cunnion, Firestorm Expert Council member