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Hot Zone '99: Think Tank Assesses Technology Needs to Counter Biological Terrorism

19 July, 1999

Arlington, Va. - The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and the Center for Counterproliferation Research of the National Defense University concluded a two-day seminar wargame dubbed "Hot Zone '99" that identified and prioritized critical areas of operational need to significantly increase U.S. capabilities to counter biological terrorism. The game took place at the Acquisition Center of Excellence (ACE) Facility at the Washington Navy Yard on July 13-14, where players assessed the capability of advanced technology to address those operational needs. The intent of the game was to work with the user community to focus resources on the highest yield approaches to countering a biological attack. The Institute plans to publish detailed results of its findings within a month.

The seminar produced a list of prioritized needs for real world operators to manage the consequences of a deliberate pathogen release. Significant needs include:

Early Warning: Intelligence; detectors; sentinel systems

Advanced diagnostic kits

Integrated Public Health Surveillance System

Interoperable, robust communications and advanced incident management tools

Improved Vaccines and Treatment

Accessible stockpiles of critical resources for consequence management

Advanced decontamination means

Participants in the wargame were also deeply concerned about a public information and education deficiency in the face of a deliberate biological release. The psychological impact of such a crisis might outweigh even the strictly medical impact, as "worried well" individuals overwhelm local medical capabilities. All of these concerns, and the needs listed above, were discussed in detail against the backdrop of a biological attack scenario that affected thousands of people.

The exercise brought together policy makers and technology users and developers to manage this realistic scenario. Participants included former Governor Arne Carlson of Minnesota; GEN Al Gray (Ret.), former Commandant of the Marine Corps; terrorism expert Dr. Robert Kupperman; and various representatives of national, state and local government who would be called upon in a biological crisis. Participants represented real world consequence managers, that include emergency room physicians and state public health officials, public safety officers, and government officials.

David Siegrist, Research Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, believes that certain technologies may be of high utility in increasing national security. According to Siegrist, "The U.S. should leverage advanced technology to counter the asymmetric threat raised by rogue nations or subnational groups that may wish to attack American society in the future."

Technologies examined for the game include advanced information systems, biological sensors and diagnostics, and unconventional pathogen countermeasures, among others. The Institute developed a preliminary list of technologies for assessment by the operator communities in the wargame. The list was developed by the Institute in consultation with representatives of the Joint Program Office for Biological Defense, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Department of Energy's Chemical and Biological Nonproliferation Program, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Sandia National Laboratory, the Department of Justice National Institute of Justice, and a number of other leading authorities on advanced technology.

For many of the new technologies assessed in the wargame, Siegrist believes that the U.S. needs an "Underwriter's Laboratory" for chemical and biological protection equipment. "Without adequate testing in realistic conditions, it is impossible to assure safe and effective operation in a crisis. This certification and public information distribution could be achieved without adding significant additional infrastructure," stated Siegrist.

The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies is an independent 501(c)(3) not-for-profit policy research institute that provides nonpartisan analysis of technology and technology policy to leaders in government, industry and academia. As the logo suggests, the Institute's work reflects the summation of technology's effects on business and government. With a reputation for fierce objectivity, the Institute has conducted studies on a wide range of technology and technology policy topics, including defense acquisition reform, dual use technology, space commercialization, cyber-terrorism and biological terrorism. The Institute has been examining the prospect of biological terrorism over the last several years.