PROFESSOR YONAH ALEXANDER AND PROFESSOR DON WALLACE, JR., EDITORS

The national, regional, and global spectrum of biological challenges is limitless. Throughout recorded history, these infinite safety concerns stem essentially from two inevitable sources of enduring actual and potential dangers to individuals, communities, societies, and civilizations.

The first critical threat is caused by Mother Nature’s disasters, such as earthquakes, cyclones, and infectious diseases. The second concern is man-made menaces, including violent radicalism, terrorism, and war. The key question then is whether the United States and the International Community are prepared to identify, prevent, and counter current and future biological threats.

The Preface of our current Report on “Combating Global COVID-19: From Isolation to International Cooperation” (November 2020) offers an overview of the nature and global implications of biological challenges, both natural and man made, as well as provides a brief academic perspective of the editors of this timely publication.

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Biological security concerns, ranging from Mother Nature to man-made threats by state and non-state actors, transcend geographic regions. In 2018 and early 2019 alone, the Ebola virus has broken out in the Congo, cholera has afflicted war-torn Yemen, North Korea has augmented its biological warfare capabilities, and the Islamic State has demonstrated a willingness to pursue the use of biological weapons. These looming biological threats pose continual and unprecedented security challenges to those in the U.S. and abroad.

Is the international community prepared to identify, prevent, counter, and respond to future biological challenges? What are the past lessons, emerging risks, and needed strategies nationally, regionally, and globally?

The following report on “Biological Terrorism: International Dimensions” is based off the remarks given by experts from the security and health communities during a special seminar held on March 28, 2019 at the International Law Institute in Washington, D.C. The distin-guished panel included: Dr. Larry Kerr (Director, Pandemics and Emerging Threats, Office of Global Affairs, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services); Professor Rita Colwell (Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland, College Park and Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, and Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies); Dr. Daniel M. Gerstein (Senior Policy Researcher, Rand Corporation, and Former Acting Undersecretary and Deputy Undersecretary in the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security); Dr. Gerald L. Epstein (Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University); and Dr. Meghan Delaney (Chief of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine & Medical Director for Transfusion Medicine, Children’s National Medical Center, and Associate Professor of Pathology & Pediatrics, George Washington University). Professor Yonah Alexander (Director, Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, and Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies) moderated the discussion and General Al Gray (Twenty-Ninth Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, and Senior Fellow and Chairman of the Board of Regents, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies) provided closing remarks.

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An assessment of contemporary national, regional, and global security concerns may cause one to recall two ancient warnings . The first is attributed to Job: “for all the things which I greatly fear is come upon me, and that which I was afraid of is come unto me .” The second describes the four horsemen of the apocalypse representing agents of conquest, famine, war, and death, and perhaps even ushering in the beginning of the end of the world .

Indeed, since the dawn of recorded history, predicting, preventing, mitigating and bringing these and related individual and collective challenges under manageable levels have been a permanent fixture of humanity’s saga . The current report on “Punctuated Equilibria Paradigm and Security in the Modern World” is one of the most recent efforts to provide broader academic analysis on the complex threats and responses involved .

The distinguished contributors to this report initially presented papers on this topic at a special seminar held on February 27, 2018 in Arlington, VA under the co-sponsorship of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Washington, D .C ., Charles University in Prague, and the Chief of Staff of the Czech Armed Forces . More details on this event will be discussed subsequently in this Introduction . At this stage, a brief academic context is in order .

More specifically, the theories of “Punctuated Equilibria” and “Multiplier Effect” have been gain- ing importance and significance, including to militaries around the world . Developed versions adapted to complex societies may be considered one of the most promising and strategic avenues of research in the social sciences . These two theoretical tools offer a way to anticipate major events and conflicts that may come into being and that better knowledge of the universal processes and laws governing any complex society is of critical importance for the 21st century .

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On March 30, 2016, the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies (IUCTS) published its seventh annual report, “Terrorism in North Africa and the Sahel in 2015,” authored by Prof. Yonah Alexander, Director-IUCTS. The report finds the region & global community facing the most serious security challenges since 9/11, from natural and man-made threats ranging from Ebola to extremism. The rise of the co-called “Islamic State” (Daesh) and the resilience of al-Qa’ida and their affiliates in Africa in 2015 have resulted in much greater instability on the continent with a costly strategic impact inter-regionally. The study recommends the U.S. & allies engage more effectively to slow a security crisis that is erupting across Africa’s “arc of instability.” Other recommendations include:

• “Strengthen U.S. and NATO intelligence assets by broadening cooperation through AFRICOM, NATO’s Partnership for Peace, and other modalities that supply and support training, equipment, and monitoring of resources throughout the region”;
• “Continue to expand U.S. counterterrorism technical assistance and training to internal security personnel”;
• “Work to settle intra-regional conflicts that provide openings for extremists to exploit and impede security and economic cooperation — including the Western Sahara dispute and the problem of refugees in the Polisario-run camps in Algeria;
• “Recognize the importance of and provide quiet encouragement to Muslim leaders in promoting the practice of a moderate Islam, as well as counter-radicalization programs that limit the appeal of extremist recruiters”;
• And “Promote regional trade and investment by expanding the US-Morocco Free Trade Agreement to include goods and products from North, West, and Central Africa."

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